Rumours rated: Bale to Manchester United? Griezmann to Barcelona? Alisson to Chelsea?
With the transfer window open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.
Gareth Bale to Manchester United: 25 percent
After becoming the hero of the Champions League final, Bale cast some shadows on his future with Real Madrid by making it clear he wants to play more next season. Manchester United have been taking steps to try to bring him back to the Premier League, but between Zinedine Zidane's departure and Cristiano Ronaldo's uncertain status at the club, it's likely that Florentino Perez will take his time to see how things shake out first. Tottenham and Bayern Munich could also be factors in the race for Bale should he leave Real.
Antoine Griezmann to Barcelona: 50 percent
The France international has made it clear he will make a decision on his future before the World Cup, but as the deadline approaches, there are no signs of a transfer happening anytime soon. Barcelona are the clear front-runner to sign him, as they can afford his exit clause and offer Griezmann the opportunity to stay in Spain, where he's very comfortable. However, Atletico Madrid are trying everything they can to keep their star, and appear willing to surpass Barcelona's proposed wages.
Alisson to Chelsea: 25 percent
After failing to reach an agreement with Thibaut Courtois on an extension, the Blues have joined the race for the Brazilian keeper. But after receiving significant revenues from their deep run in the Champions League, Roma won't be forced to make a big sale by June 30 to meet their financial fair play requirements and might wait until after the World Cup to see how the market for Alisson develops. The Italian club are looking for significantly more than the €40 million Manchester City spent on Ederson, who happens to be Alisson's backup on Brazil's national team. And considering Liverpool and Real Madrid also are interested, they'll likely get it.
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Juventus: 20 percent
Despite being linked to numerous clubs abroad, could the Serbian midfielder end up staying in Serie A? Juventus have made a concrete attempt to sign him, but they would have to raise their previous offer substantially to have a realistic chance; it likely would take a sale of a significant player or two to meet Lazio's valuation, essentially a repeat of the Paul Pogba deal to finance Gonzalo Higuain's acquisition. Even that might not be enough when you consider that Juventus has a strained relationship with Lazio, and that there are numerous suitors with deep pockets.
Thiago Alcantara to Barcelona: 50 percent
Niko Kovac's appointment as manager could be the first of many changes at Bayern Munich, as the club seem open to discussing moves for some of their big names. Thiago, who struggled with injuries this season, is rumoured to be pondering a return to Barcelona, where he would be welcomed with open arms after Andres Iniesta's departure. While his former coach Carlo Ancelotti is also interested in making Thiago a part of his project at Napoli, it's unlikely the Italian club will be able to afford him.
Lorenzo Pellegrini to Arsenal: 35 percent
The Gunners continue to shop in Italy during the first transfer window of the post-Arsene Wenger era. In addition to former Juventus defender Stephan Lichtsteiner, Arsenal have identified Pellegrini as an ideal addition to their midfield. Manager Unai Emery could leverage his long-standing relationship with Monchi, Roma's sporting director, with whom he worked at Sevilla, and it's not out of the question that Arsenal could acquire the player for less than his roughly €30m exit clause. As an alternative to Pellegrini, Arsenal are monitoring Sampdoria midfielders Lucas Torreira and Dennis Praet.
Javier Pastore to West Ham: 35 percent
The reports of a deal between the Hammers and the Paris Saint-Germain midfielder appear to be a bit premature. Pastore's priority is to play in the Champions League, and preferably in Serie A, where he previously played for Palermo. Inter tried to sign Pastore in January and remain interested, but they will likely only be able to offer a loan with an option to buy until they sort out their financial fair play issue by the June 30 deadline. West Ham could try to take advantage by offering a permanent deal, which would help PSG's own FFP issues.
Medhi Benatia to Marseille: 25 percent
Despite a strong season in which he essentially replaced Leonardo Bonucci, the Moroccan centre-back could leave Juventus this summer due to some lingering character issues. Benatia has said multiple times he'd be intrigued by returning to Marseille, his first professional team, but the French club would have to make a significant offer to get the deal done. Benatia could also be a fit in the Premier League. Should they sell him, Juventus could look to make a move for Ajax's Matthijs de Ligt.
Joao Cancelo to Wolverhampton: 55 percent
Inter would like to keep the Portuguese right wing-back after a strong first season in Serie A, but because their option to buy him from Valencia expires before they are due to raise funds to meet their FFP obligations, Cancelo will almost certainly be on a new team next season. His agent Jorge Mendes is working on bringing him to Wolverhampton, a club he has very strong ties to. Wolves could also acquire two other Mendes clients: Rui Patricio and Andre Silva.
Joao Mario to La Liga: 35 percent
The former Sporting CP midfielder struggled to adapt to Serie A and, after spending four months on loan to West Ham, he's made clear he won't return to Inter, the club that still owns his rights. Joao Mario's goal is to play in a league that better suits his characteristics; he could stay in the Premier League or head to La Liga, where he's being pursued by Villareal and Valencia. Inter are looking for at least €30m for him, as they cannot afford to take a loss on the significant investment they made to sign him in the first place.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.